Approaching the final stretch of Mike Babcock’s first full season with the Toronto Maple Leafs, the results haven’t been great.
The Leafs have earned the fewest wins of any team in the NHL thus far, emerging victorious in only 17 of 48 games, and sit with only 43 points – tied with Edmonton and Columbus for last in the league.
Truth be told, there wasn’t much more expected of the lowly Leafs this season, given the “scorched-earth” rebuild strategy they identified as their plan moving forward. While the near-last place trajectory surely stings, it’ll feel much better come draft time, when the storied organization will net one of the plethora of gifted forwards available in the top five.
With the team results aside, then, the question turns to how exactly the Leafs’ individual pieces have performed in 2015-16. Only a handful of the current squad figures to remain a part of Toronto’s long-term plan. Young centreman Nazem Kadri appears to be a part of that group, but the 25-year-old has had a fairly tumultuous 2015-16 campaign thus far.
Expectations were sky-high for Kadri this season, even with the team projected to flounder. To be fair, Babcock himself may be to blame for the rise in the predicted output of the young Ontario native.
“I expect him to be an elite player,” Babcock told the Toronto Sun prior to the 2015-16 season. And so the hockey world expected the same.
Babcock has certainly done all he can to help in that transition. First, he’s shifted Kadri’s role into a much more offensively-focused one. The young pivot is starting 53.4 percent of his shifts in the offensive zone under Babcock this season – a significant increase from last year, when he started only 45.8 percent of his shifts in the offensive zone.
Babcock is also using Kadri much more than previous coaches have in general. The centreman’s average ice-time is up to a career-high 18:14 minutes so far this season. He averaged 17:30 minutes over the past two campaigns, and resided in the 14–16 minute range in the few seasons before that.
And yet, the Leafs have received mixed results from using Kadri in this increased role.
In terms of tangible offense, the higher usage hasn’t translated to increased success. Kadri’s goals-per-game and points-per-game mark sit roughly where they were last year. He’s posted a mark of .21 goals-per-game this season (slightly lower than last season’s .25) alongside .54 points-per-game (slightly higher than last season’s .53).
With 10 goals and 26 points through 48 games, Kadri is currently on pace to post roughly 17 goals and 44 points by the season’s end – right in line with last season’s 18 goals and 39 points, but still short of his career-best 20-goal, 50-point campaign in 2013-14.
While it seems like Kadri has failed to capitalize on the trust Babcock has given him, a closer look reveals there’s much more to the story. Though he’s failed to break through more consistently on the scoresheet, Kadri has still managed to post career-best numbers in numerous areas.
Chief among these has been his shooting tendencies. After posting 176 shots in 78 games last season, Kadri has already equalled that total in 2015-16, racking up 176 shots in only 48 games so far. His shooting hasn’t just been impressive in relation to his own career, however. He’s in fact amassed the eighth-most shots in the league so far in 2015-16.
However, horrid luck has kept 166 of those attempts out of the cage, dropping Kadri’s shooting percentage to a paltry 5.7 percent — the lowest conversion rate among the league’s top 25 shooters. The lack of goalscoring is surely problematic, but given the sheer number of chances he’s generating, it seems almost certain that Kadri’s subpar luck will come to an end soon enough.
Aside from his scoring troubles, Kadri has improved across the board. He’s upped his possession game, posting a career-best Corsi For percentage of 51.7 percent so far this season, and he’s also winning more face-offs, holding a face-off percentage over 50 for the first time in his career (51.6 percent).
Even without the puck on his stick, Kadri has managed to up his game – the talented centreman is hitting more (averaging 1.92 hits-per-game this season after 1.62 last season) and blocking more shots (25 blocked shots already this season after only 23 over the entire 2014-15 season) while remaining one of the Leafs’ best at driving offensive opportunities.
Though 2015-16 hasn’t gone as Kadri or Babcock may have hoped, the veteran head coach hasn’t been shy about praising his top centreman.
“This is my two cents on Naz,” Babcock said to the Toronto Sun earlier this season. “He has been, in my opinion, the best forward on our team. He competes every night. He is in on all the chances, he generates a ton. He is a way better player than I expected. In the 100-mile journey, he is on mile 25. He is going to get way better as long as he competes. If he wants to be good, he is going to be good. It’s up to him.”
Thus it seems, even with Kadri’s tumultuous performance through the first two thirds of the season, the 25-year-old has still managed to take a significant step forward. That improvement is crucial, as Kadri is currently in the midst of a one-year, $4.1 million deal with Toronto, and is set to be a restricted free agent this summer. While he may not have posted an elite season that forced the Leafs into inking a hefty long-term deal – a la P.K. Subban’s “show-me” season – Kadri has seemingly done enough to prove his worth and remain in the organization’s long-term plans.
That’s good news for the Leafs, as the fact that Kadri will likely return on a reasonable contract next season bodes well for the club’s future financial stability, especially with a plethora of young stars like William Nylander, Mitch Marner, and Kasperi Kapanen waiting around the corner.
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